Research / Demographics
Research & data
Pew Research Center is the most widely cited independent source on the size of the U.S. Muslim population. Its figures are estimates, not census counts, and later Pew publications have updated them.
Millions of people (2050 is a projection)
| Year | Figure | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2.35 | Published estimate or count |
| 2011 | 2.75 | Published estimate or count |
| 2017 | 3.45 | Published estimate or count |
| 2026 | 5.5 | Published estimate or count |
| 2050 | 8.1 | Projection |
Pew notes that the U.S. Census Bureau does not ask about religion, so there is no official government headcount. Estimates combine Pew surveys with Census population data. The 2007, 2011, and 2017 points are Pew's published estimates of Muslims of all ages (2.35 million, 2.75 million, and 3.45 million). The 2026 point is Pew's later estimate of about 5.5 million, published September 3, 2026; Pew's accompanying chart rounds the 2007 figure to 2.4 million. The 2050 point (8.1 million, or 2.1% of the U.S. population) is a projection, not a count: Pew published it in January 2018, consistent with its April 2015 forecast that Muslims would be 2.1% of the U.S. population in 2050 if then-current demographic trends held. Projections depend on assumptions about fertility, age structure, and migration, and can be revised.
3.45 million
Pew’s estimate of Muslims of all ages in 2017, or about 1.1% of the U.S. population, up from 2.35 million in 2007 and 2.75 million in 2011. Pew wrote that growth had continued at roughly 100,000 people per year, driven by fertility and migration, and that conversions had not had a large net effect because about as many people left Islam as entered it.
Source: Pew Research Center, “New estimates show U.S. Muslim population continues to grow” (January 3, 2018)
5.5 million
Pew’s September 2026 estimate of Muslims of all ages “today,” described as up from 2.4 million in 2007 (a rounded form of the earlier 2.35 million estimate). The same release said Muslims remain a growing part of the country’s religious landscape.
Source: Pew Research Center, “25 years after 9/11, a portrait of Muslim Americans” (September 3, 2026)
Accompanying chart: Pew Research Center, “U.S. Muslim community has grown (chart)” (September 3, 2026)
8.1 million
Pew’s 2050 projection: 8.1 million people, or 2.1% of the U.S. population — nearly twice the 1.1% share Pew estimated in 2017. In 2015 and 2018, Pew also projected that, if then-current trends held, Muslims would become the nation’s second-largest religious group after Christians by 2040, surpassing people who identify as Jewish by religion. That forecast is not a certainty.
Source: Pew Research Center, “New estimates show U.S. Muslim population continues to grow” (January 3, 2018)
2015 projection write-up: Pew Research Center, “Muslims expected to surpass Jews as second-largest U.S. religious group” (April 14, 2015)
Pew’s 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study, reported in June 2025, describes Muslims as about 1% of U.S. adults and emphasizes internal diversity. No racial or ethnic group is a majority: roughly 30% of Muslim adults are White (in the Census sense, which includes many people of Middle Eastern or North African origin), 30% Asian, 20% Black, 11% Hispanic, and 8% another race or more than one race. Some 59% of Muslim adults were born outside the United States, compared with 17% of Christians.
The same analysis finds that Muslim adults are younger and more highly educated, on average, than U.S. Christians: 35% are ages 18 to 29 (compared with 14% of Christians), 44% are college graduates, and 26% hold a postgraduate degree. About 42% are parents of a minor child at home. Religious commitment is comparable to that of U.S. Christians on several measures: 60% of Muslim adults say religion is very important in their lives, and 39% say they attend services at least weekly.
In the 2017 survey, Pew reported that 58% of Muslim adults were born abroad, that 60% of Muslim adults were under 40, and that respondents came from at least 75 countries. Racial identification in that earlier survey was 41% White, 28% Asian, and 20% Black — a reminder that survey categories and the population itself both move over time.
Demographic change is a fact of public interest. It does not, by itself, tell us what any person believes, how a neighbor will vote, or whether the constitutional order will be honored. We discuss ideas, law, and institutions. We do not treat population figures as a brief against a people. See also Reading demographic change without panic or denial.